Sino-US economic and trade consultations restart, it is worth the world
On the morning of Thursday (September 5th), Liu He should make a phone call with Wright Heze and Mnuchin. The Chinese side issued a message saying that the two sides agreed to hold the thirteenth round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations in Washington in early October, after the two sides will maintain close communication. The working layer will conduct serious consultations in mid-September to fully prepare for the substantive progress of the high-level consultations.
The news also said that the two sides agreed that they should work together and take practical actions to create favorable conditions for the consultation.
After the US dollar reached the Osaka consensus in June, the two sides held the 12th round of high-level consultations in Shanghai in July. After that, the US suddenly announced the addition of new tariffs, which led to China’s counter-measures and further escalation of the trade war. The tense economic and trade relations between China and the United States continue to stir the global market, and the US stock market has experienced violent turmoil. As Liu He met with American guests on the 3rd, the trade war is not conducive to China, not to the United States, and to the whole world.
We have noticed that this time, in addition to announcing that the two sides will hold a new high-level consultation in early October, also stressed that the two sides will make serious and sufficient preparations before, in order to obtain the essence of the thirteenth round of high-level consultations in early October. Sexual progress." It is extremely rare to make a "substantial progress" effort before the consultations.
Do China and the United States have a willingness to reach an economic and trade agreement? The answer is obviously yes. However, the two sides still have a large position gap so far. In the past, the violent twists and turns showed that the problems of both sides were not in the specific details of bargaining, but the basic attitude failed to achieve mutual docking. The US believes that its strength is sufficient to support its even unreasonable demands, while the Chinese insist that negotiations must be based on mutual respect, the process must be equal, and the result should be a win-win situation.
More than a year of trade war has caused both sides to suffer losses. China is blunt about this. The US is not willing to admit that the trade war is hurting itself. But the high-tariffs bring benefits to the US economy. This anti-common narrative cannot be justified. It is difficult to maintain, so the two sides are faced with the choice of continuing to lose each other's consumption or mutual compromise.
Some time ago, the tariffs of both sides have been overweighted. The next step is to maintain trade wars, especially if further codes are added. Although the US side is the active party to launch a trade war, it has certain advantages in strength, but in order to continue the trade war and sacrifice the political interests of the ruling party, this is awkward in the US system.
The trade war has a real stalemate, the US has more economic advantages, and the Chinese political advantage is more obvious. There is an expectation that is increasingly disturbing: if the two sides do not make concessions, the trade war is likely to continue for a long time until the two sides are unable to step out of the increasingly complex minefields that form a lasting strategic damage to both sides. As the early signs of the US pointing to the economic recession gradually increase, the seriousness of the problem is undoubtedly strengthened.
The willingness to reach an agreement between China and the United States seems to be increasing. China’s willingness to reach an agreement has been relatively stable, and the US’s volatility has been greater. In order to maximize the interests of the US, there have been some attempts to test the bottom line of the Chinese side. However, after several major rounds, the Chinese side has been deeply impressed by the Chinese side's tolerance. The two sides have more understanding of each other's attitudes and bottom line.
China and the United States have more sufficient conditions for serious negotiations, but it does not mean that the two sides can really achieve major breakthroughs in the thirteenth round of high-level economic and trade consultations and achieve substantial progress. There are still many factors that determine the efficiency of Sino-US negotiations. The big picture is gradually clear, but the ability to intervene in temporary events is still very strong. A specific economic data, including the replacement of politically urgent issues in the United States, may arise.
I believe that the Chinese team will seriously and actively negotiate, and will always adhere to the principle bottom line. The Chinese public is considered to be "thinking and refining" and needs to continue to maintain a normal heart. The new consultation can achieve results, of course, but it does not matter if it can not be achieved. The Chinese economy is accelerating the formation of resilience and adjustment specifically for trade wars. The reason for doing things well has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Everyone knows that the more we increase the economic activity, the more we expand our market size, the more likely the Sino-US economic and trade agreement will come to us earlier.