The coal market is not optimistic for a long time

Enter November, import coal price stops rise fall.China thermal coal import cif price index (CICI) was jointly released by China coal industry association and China coal transportation and marketing association on Nov. 9, 2019, a supporting event of the second China international import expo.According to the first batch of CICI data, on November 8, the cif prices of 5,500 CARDS, 5,000 CARDS and 4,500 CARDS of imported coal in east and south China were significantly reduced.

"The reason is the overall loose supply, insufficient purchase demand, foreign trade freight caused by the decline."Zhang mohan of yi coal research institute told reporters that as of November 10, China's key power plant coal storage capacity reached 97.92 million tons, 4.3 million tons higher than last year's peak, daily consumption of 3.45 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year, available days 28.30 days.On the whole, the terminal power plant is short of power.

Procurement, the end of October, customs have spread throughout the year to import coal amount used up, restrict imports by the news of the unloading, coal in a short period of time the import policy uncertainty risk, superposition spreads narrowed down to import coal advantage weaken, downstream to suspend purchase, mainly wait-and-see, procurement from China in the international market demand, causes the international steam coal prices fell.

At the same time, the recent international dry bulk cargo transport market depression, the Pacific market overall transaction decreased, the freight rates of the main ship, the rhythm is different.Cape freight rates were weak, with the BCI index plunging 506 points last week.Panama - ship overall transaction is rare, freight prices continue to decline.Pacific market continues to be in the doldrums, the lingbenshi shipping price continuous decline, the decline gradually narrowed this week.Reflecting the pessimism in the shipping market, the BDI index fell 570 points as of November 12 from the same period last month.

In contrast, the domestic market, coal prices fell after the stabilization.

"Overall loose domestic supply, winter storage demand and shortage of some high-quality coal are the main reasons why coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized."Zhang mohan introduced that pit head, after the National Day holiday, the main production areas of coal mines to accelerate production, supply overall loose, pit head price continued to reduce.In November, as the end of the year approached, the coal mines in the main producing areas implemented the strategy of production by sales. The heating season in the north boosted the overall price of the pit head, and the number of coal mines decreased significantly compared with the previous month. In addition, the production limit in winter was imposed on environmental protection, so the pit head price stopped falling and stabilized.In terms of port, due to the low enthusiasm of traders in shipping, the coal transfer amount in the port around bohai sea decreased by about 150,000 tons per day compared with the previous period, resulting in a decrease of 1 million tons in the overall inventory, and structural shortage of some high quality coal with high cost performance. As a result, traders started to show a new attitude of price support.

However, zhang mohan believes that the late coal price is still under great downward pressure, the situation is not optimistic.Since this year, coastal terminal power plant to maintain high inventory strategy.By November 13, the total inventory of six major coastal power plants was 16.6999 million tons, a slight decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days of coal storage were maintained at about 27-28 days. However, the inventory of national key power plants had climbed to the historical peak ahead of time, and there was almost no space for replenishment.Due to the current port price below the annual long association price, the power plant has a small amount of demand released, but the demand for replenishment is still small under the high inventory, and the annual coal ordering meeting will be held soon, it is expected that the power plant is still difficult to appear large-scale centralized procurement in the short term.

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