The performance of several coal enterprises in the semi-annual report is positive.
The semi-annual report of listed companies has been disclosed, and the performance of many coal enterprises has improved. Among them, the net profit of Hongyang Energy, Pingmei and Shanmei International increased by 172.72%, 91.87% and 53% respectively.
“The profits of these coal enterprises have risen. In general, they have benefited from stable market demand, stable prices, and capacity growth and cost reduction.” Xing Lei, director of the Research Center of Coal Listed Companies of the Central University of Finance and Economics, on Securities Daily
Since 2019, the macroeconomic situation has maintained a steady growth. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year.
The stability of industrial production has kept the demand for coal as a basic energy relatively stable.
According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of this year, the coal production of coal enterprises above designated size totaled 1.76 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%.
The national railway shipped 1.2 billion tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%.
“The Bohai Sea coal price index is from the lowest of 570 yuan at the beginning of the year to the highest in April and 579 yuan in May, with fluctuations of no more than 10 yuan, and the volatility does not exceed 1.6%.” A coal industry expert told Securities Daily.
“After the de-capacity of the coal industry, the supply curve will shift to the left and become steeper. The demand will increase slightly and the price will be stabilized. In the first half of the year, the government implemented a proactive fiscal policy, the overall economy was stable, avoiding the stall risk, and the demand stability supported the coal price.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist and managing director of New Era Securities, told Securities Daily.
Xing Lei said, "The National Development and Reform Commission requires coal enterprises to speed up the release of high-quality production capacity. Some newly approved coal mines have been put into operation in some countries, increasing the supply of high-quality coal. The national coal production pattern has undergone major changes, and the output of large coal mines is close to 80%.
Large coal mines have good coal quality and low cost, which makes coal enterprises more efficient."
“The environmental protection policy continued to be implemented in the first half of the year, coupled with the limited import of overseas coal, the overall coal supply has decreased. The supply has decreased and the demand has stabilized, which has enabled some domestic coal companies to show good results.” Pan Xiangdong said.
According to the "Securities Daily" statistics, 22 of the 35 coal companies that have disclosed the results of the semi-annual report have increased their operating income year-on-year.
“The overall trend of the coal industry in the second half of this year will remain relatively stable, but the uncertain situation will also increase, especially the uncertain impact of changes in the external economic and trade environment on China's industry. At the same time, the supply is relatively loose and the inventory is sufficient.
The continuous increase in imports and other conditions may cause the market bearish sentiment to continue to increase, which may have certain adverse effects on the development of coal listed companies." Xing Lei said.
“The second half of the year is more optimistic about the thermal coal sector.” Peng Xin, the chief researcher of Tianfeng Securities Coal, told Securities Daily that “the price of thermal coal will rise in the second half of the year, but in the second half of the year, downstream power plants have always maintained high inventory levels.
Weak, it is difficult to achieve a large increase. The overall price of coking coal is relatively stable, and it is difficult to find better investment opportunities in the second half of the year when supply and demand are weak; coke is affected by upstream and downstream, price is fluctuating, and industry uncertainty is high."
He further said that in the second half of the year, thermal coal, coking coal and coke are expected to be subject to environmental safety inspections, which will limit supply.
In the long run, the increase in demand for replenishment of downstream power plants in winter will also drive up the price of thermal coal.
In addition, the tightening of import policies will also reduce the supply of coal.
In terms of regional transportation scheduling, the opening of the Menghua Railway will facilitate the transfer of coal from Inner Mongolia to the two lakes and one river region, which will benefit the demand for production.
"In the long run, China's status as the world's largest manufacturing country will not change, and China's industrial production will not see a significant decline. This is a positive factor for the macro economy to the future of the coal industry." Xing Lei said that the economy continues
Stable growth will continue to bring about steady growth in energy demand. As China's largest basic energy coal, although demand will decline, its status will not change. Coal will not be the most reliable guarantee for China's energy security.