Thermal coal upside space is limited
At present, under the influence of the hot weather, the demand for electricity rises rapidly, while the thermal coal producing areas are difficult to increase, the supply is not stable, and the market is expected to be bullish on coal prices.However, the national development and reform commission stable price policy orientation has not changed, and the downstream power plant thermal coal inventory is high, the market is generally expected thermal coal prices will oscillate strong operation.
Short-term coal supplies are tight
In late June, the national development and reform commission (NDRC) and the national energy administration issued a notice on completing the summer energy peak in 2019, calling for the release of high-quality coal production capacity to be accelerated.However, the present production area security inspection situation is grim.Recently, the ministry of ecology and environment said that the second round of the first batch of inspectors stationed preparations have been basically ready, pending the approval of the central government, will be launched in the near future a new round of inspectors.Therefore, coal supply is difficult to increase in the short term.
At the same time, the coal inventory in bohai bay port has been decreasing rapidly recently. As of June 30, the coal inventory in important ports in bohai sea has decreased by more than 2.7 million tons from the beginning of the month to nearly 4 million tons at the beginning of the month and nearly 2 million tons at the end of the month.
In addition, the import situation is not optimistic.Recently, it was reported that the port of guangxi will extend the customs clearance time of Indonesian coal import, and once the import of southern ports is tightened, the supplementary role of foreign trade coal will be rapidly weakened.
Hydropower growth is limited
Since the beginning of this year, the hydropower market has been running well, further squeezing the share of thermal power market demand. As a result, the year-on-year growth rate of thermal power generation slowed down in May.At present, the rainfall is abundant in south China, and the hydropower generation is still at a high level. By the end of June, the inflow and outflow velocity of the three gorges reservoir has exceeded the maximum velocity required for power generation, and the hydropower generation is basically at full capacity, with very limited room for further growth.In addition, once the reservoir has flood discharge requirements, or there is a decline in hydropower generation.
According to the national meteorological center's monthly forecast report, it is expected that in July, the number of hot days in the southern northeast, most of north China, most of huang-huai, most of the eastern northwest and most of south China is more than the same period of the year.In this case, the demand for electricity will grow rapidly.However, the increase of clean energy, such as hydropower, has been very limited. Once the demand increases, thermal power generation will assume the main task.Based on the 450 billion-460 billion kilowatt hours of thermal power generated in July and August 2018, combined with the national power supply coal consumption of 304.5g/ KWH in the power industry statistics released by the national energy administration in May, the coal demand in July and August will increase by 42.5 million to 48.6 million tons of standard coal compared with may.As of mid-june, coal stocks in key power plants nationwide were only about 14 million tons higher than the same period last year, making it difficult to cover future demand growth.