What adjustments will be made to the 14th five-year energy plan?
In the past five years, China's energy consumption structure has been significantly improved, the quality of energy supply has been significantly improved, energy science and technology has yielded fruitful results, and the energy system has undergone profound reform.Over the past five years, China's total energy consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, and energy consumption per unit of GDP has dropped by 20.3 percent.The proportion of coal consumption dropped by 8.4 percentage points.Non-fossil fuels accounted for 14.3 percent of total energy consumption, natural gas accounted for 7.8 percent of total energy consumption, and electricity accounted for 25.5 percent of total energy consumption.Compared with the 13th five-year plan, what adjustments will be made to China's energy planning?During the period of the 14th five-year plan (2021 ~ 2025), the proportion of fossil energy in the primary energy structure will be about 80% in both the world and China, and the proportion of coal in the primary energy structure in China will be about 55%.Therefore, when formulating the "14th five-year plan" for energy development, we should pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, we should not distract ourselves from the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, especially coal;On the other hand, we need to make non-fossil energy the main source of growth during this period, so that by 2030, non-fossil energy will account for 20% of primary energy consumption.
To this end, "promote clean use of coal, accelerate the solution of wind, light, hydropower consumption problems" should be implemented into the plan, promote clean and efficient development and use of coal, as the foothold and the primary task of energy transformation and development.At the same time, we will accelerate the increase in the proportion of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind, solar and biomass, and develop nuclear power in a safe and efficient manner.
Based on the strategic considerations of the energy revolution, the establishment of a "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy system will become a long-term goal, and the "14th five-year" energy development plan should be deployed accordingly.
"Clean" means to focus on promoting the scientific development and clean utilization of fossil energy, especially coal, to improve the concentration of coal use.Clean and efficient use of coal is also clean energy.Led by the national development and reform commission, seven ministries, including the National Energy Administration, have included clean coal use and production in the green industry guidance catalogue (2019 edition), which should also be reflected in the plan.
"Low-carbon" means that while increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, energy conservation, emission reduction and energy efficiency should be regarded as the top priority in the process of low-carbon development in China. At the same time, we should clearly adhere to and maintain the common three principles of the Paris agreement and ensure China's reasonable right to development."Security" includes energy supply, ecological environment, science and technology and economy.In the current situation where China's oil and gas dependence on foreign countries is increasing and geopolitical situation is changing, it is more important to view coal-based fuels, such as coal-to-oil, gas, alcohol and ether, as well as coal-based chemicals, such as olefin and aromatics, as partial substitutes for oil and natural gas, from a strategic perspective, and to provide deployment and support in the planning."Efficient" means that the efficiency of energy production, transformation and utilization should be improved. If China's energy utilization efficiency is raised to the world average level, it can reduce the consumption of 1.33 billion tons of standard coal and thus reduce the emission of 3.46 billion tons of carbon dioxide, which accounts for 1/3 of the total carbon emission in 2018.
At the power level, we should give full play to the supporting role of energy technology revolution in constructing the target energy system.The essence of the energy technology revolution is the energy conversion revolution, which aims at the effective control and efficient conversion of energy.Generic key technologies can promote the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry;Leading edge technology can improve the quality of demonstration projects;Modern engineering technology can realize large-scale and commercial demonstration projects.Disruptive technologies are key to the low-carbon transition.All these should be reflected in the "14th five-year" energy development plan.
At the implementation level, the energy development plan of the 14th five-year plan should closely combine the energy revolution with regional economic and social development strategies, and give full play to the role of energy revolution in promoting economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection.For example, the energy revolution promotes the coordinated development of regional economic society and ecological environment, the coordinated development of beijing-tianjin-hebei region and the construction of xiongan new area, the innovative development of the Yangtze river delta, the open development of the pearl river delta, the transformation and development of old industrial bases, the rise of the central region, the green development of energy-rich areas, and the Shared development of the southwest.